Praharnya Shankar Karthik surveys interesting shifts in the 2024 election voter demographics
Overall
According to studies, race, gender, and the level of education strongly influences the party people vote for. Other factors such as location and age can influence voters as well. Some groups have shown a trend in which way they vote since 2016. But there have been some interesting shifts in voter demographics as well.
Some people are saying that Kamala Harris underperformed in the 2024 election. Even though female voters leaned towards Harris and male voters leaned towards Trump, less women voters voted for Harris then they did for the democratic candidate in previous elections. Additionally, major groups like Latino men changed their support which majorly affected the election result.
White Voters
Since 2016 White voters with no college degree have consistently voted in Trump’s favor. On the other hand, White voters with college degrees voted for the Democratic candidate in the previous two elections.
A closer look shows that White women with college degrees voted blue every time since 2016 while White women without college degrees voted in favor of Trump everytime.
When this is compared to White men, it can be seen that either way White men were more supportive of Trump. But White men with a college degree were more split and only a slightly higher percentage voted for Trump in 2020 and 2024.
Black Voters
Regardless of race, gender, or education, Black voters have always voted for the Democratic candidate. But there have been changes in some groups in the Black community.
Less Black men voted for Harris in this year’s election than they did for the Democratic candidate in previous elections. While fewer Black women voted for Harris than they voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, more of them voted for her than Joe Biden in 2020. Additionally, Harris got less votes from Black voters with and without college degrees than Democratic candidates got in previous years.
Latino Voters
Latino voters, in particular Latino men, were an important factor leading to Trump’s victory. Even though Latino men voted Democratic in the last two elections, that changed this year when they voted for Trump. Latina women also voted less for Harris than they did for Democratic candidates in previous years.
Age and Location
Voters aged 18-44 voted in favor of Harris but in a smaller margin than last election. This was an interesting phenomenon as Harris’s campaign was aimed towards the younger generation. Young voters shifted towards Trump. The opposite can be seen in older voters. Even though voters aged 45 through 64 voted in favor of Trump and more of them voted for him than in the last election, Trump lost voters aged 65 and older. Older voters generally vote Republican but this election they were equally split.
Rural voters have been Trump supporters since 2016. Trump regained rural voters he lost in the 2020 election. The same can be seen in suburban voters. In the 2016 election they voted in favor of Trump, in the 2020 election they voted for Biden, and this election they voted for Trump again. Opposite to rural areas, urban voters were strongly Democratic. But since 2016, a small number of urban voters have been shifting to Republican.
Conclusion
This year’s election was accompanied by shifts in voter demographics which can be due to the economy, abortion rights, and more. Many groups voted the way they did due to the fact that they felt their family had fallen behind. It will be interesting to see whether or not these groups will vote the same in the 2028 election.
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